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OECD’s Gurria Says Economic Recovery Still ‘Fragile’

Written on January 10, 2010

The nascent recovery in the world’s developed economies is at risk from rising joblessness, weak banks and high oil prices, said Angel Gurria, Secretary General of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Bank lending in Europe and the U.S. is still slower than usual and economic acceleration “still seems weak, fragile,” Gurria said. Even so, the OECD has no plans to update its 2010 forecast of 1.9 percent growth in its member countries, Gurria, 59, said in a phone interview today from Mexico City.

Gurria’s comments come after John Lipsky, the first deputy managing director at the International Monetary Fund, said in a Bloomberg Radio interview on Jan. 6 that the IMF may raise its 3.1 percent forecast for global growth this year later this month.

“There are still negative risks such as the rise in oil prices,” Gurria said. “You have the problem of how to resolve the matters of mortgages and the banking system in general. Then there’s a very significant unemployment problem, which will probably keep rising in 2010.”

Major central banks have no need to remove monetary stimulus, Gurria said.

The Bank of England yesterday left its interest rate unchanged at a record low of 0.5 percent and kept its asset purchasing program at 200 billion pounds ($320.5 billion).

The European Central Bank may wait before changing in its monetary policy too, he said.

‘Shock Absorber’

“The margin we have in employment and utilized capacity acts as a shock absorber,” he said. “We’re still in the phase of worrying about the recovery, not yet in the stage of worrying about inflation.”

The OECD today said its leading economic indicator rose to the highest level in two years, suggesting the economy is recovering after the worst recession since World War II.

The measure increased 1 point in November to 102.3, 8.2 points more than the reading of November 2008 and the highest since December 2007 instant payday loans completely online.

The Paris-based OECD said in November it expected the economies of its 30 members to expand 1.9 percent this year and 2.5 percent in 2011. In June it had forecast 0.7 percent growth for this year.

‘Modest Growth Rates’

“What we see not just in 2010, but 2011 as well and going forward in following years is that we generally forecast pretty modest growth rates,” he said. “That suggests we need to focus on public policy and coordination with the aim of increasing that growth potential.”

Gurria, 59, was Mexico’s chief negotiator when it issued so-called Brady bonds, named for then-U.S. Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, to replace $48 billion of defaulted bank loans the country couldn’t pay.

A decade later as finance minister from 1998 to 2000, he earned Latin America’s first investment-grade credit rating from Moody’s Investors Service by using the proceeds from rising oil prices to pay off the last of the Brady debt.

Since taking over the Paris-based OECD in June 2006, he has pushed expand the group’s membership to include emerging markets such as Chile.

Chile is due to become the Paris-based group’s first South American member at a ceremony in Santiago on Jan. 11.

Estonia, Israel, Russia and Slovenia are on the short list to join and the group has opened talks with Brazil, which has adopted some of its rules, as well as China, India, Indonesia and South Africa.

The OECD, founded in 1961 from the organization formed to administer Marshall Plan aid after World War II, promotes dialogue among states to try and coordinate domestic and international policies.

Joining the group “confirms the positive perception in the world about the achievements and advances of our country,” Chilean Finance Minister Andres Velasco said today in an e- mailed response.

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