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Recession is and was here

Written on December 4, 2008

It’s official: For the last year, the U.S. economy has been in recession. And based on the latest economic reports and outlooks, it doesn’t appear that the situation will improve anytime soon.

The evidence of a downturn has been widespread for months: slower production, stagnant wages and hundreds of thousands of lost jobs. But the nonpartisan National Bureau of Economic Research, charged with making the call for the history books, waited until Monday to weigh in.

The members of the group’s Business Cycle Dating Committee — made up of seven prominent economists, most from the academic sector — said that the economy entered a recession in December 2007.

The news sent stocks reeling. The Dow Jones industrial average suffered one of its worst days since the financial meltdown Monday, slicing off 680 points, as Wall Street snapped out of its daydream of a rally and once again faced the harsh reality of a recession. Not only did stocks end their five-day winning streak, they erased more than half the gains made during that period. The Standard & Poor’s 500 stock index, one of the broadest market gauges, lost nearly 9 percent.

"This is just another episode in a long story, and the story is all about recession and the question is how long and how deep," said Chuck Widger, chief executive and chairman of investment management firm Brinker Capital. "We’re going to have continuing volatility until investors have better visibility."

A key economic report on Monday did not brighten anyone’s outlook.

The Institute for Supply Management’s index of manufacturing activity for November fell to 36.2 from October’s 38.9, the lowest reading in 26 years. The reading was worse than Wall Street economists’ expectations of 38.4, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. A figure below 50 indicates the sector is shrinking.

Separate manufacturing surveys on Monday from the United Kingdom, the European Union, China and other countries also were weak, fueling fears of a deepening global downturn free credit reports.

Economists said that the manufacturing survey showed that the U.S. economy is in a steep recession and that tough times will continue for manufacturers. It "points to one of the deepest contractions in industrial output in the post-World War II era," wrote Michael Feroli, U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Inc., in a research note.

The downturn in the economy came despite numerous efforts by the federal government to stimulate the economy through tax rebate checks, lowered interest rates, credit guarantees and financial system bailouts. The latest tally on the combined efforts exceeds $7 trillion.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Monday that further interest rate cuts are "certainly feasible," but he warned there are limits to how much such action would revive an economy likely to stay weak well into next year.

The Fed’s key interest rate now stands at 1 percent, a level seen only once before in the last half-century.

Bernanke didn’t mention the National Bureau of Economic Research’s finding in his speech to business leaders in Austin, Texas, nor in answering questions afterward. But he warned that the economy likely will remain stuck in a slump.

"Even if the functioning of financial markets continues to improve, economic conditions will probably remain weak for a time," he said.

The National Bureau of Economic Research said the economy contracted in the final quarter of last year.

Though the economy recovered slightly in the first quarter and was aided by $600 stimulus checks distributed in the spring, it jolted into reverse again in the summer. The latest Commerce Department report showed the economy was contracting at a 0.5 percent annual rate in the summer. Many economists predict it is still shrinking now and will continue to do so through the first three months of next year.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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